In recent months, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) has tried to help stabilize the political situation and salvage the economy. The establishment of a new political party is also imminent. If planned well, the new party could have a decisive impact.

Many people have been optimistic about the new party, but in light of the current rates of public support for the various parties, the new one will succeed only if it can rally non-DPP supporters by means of some extraordinary action.

Taiwan's political landscape was changed by last year's presidential election. The KMT faced a downturn in public support; the DPP saw small-scale growth; the People First Party (PFP) was on the rise; the New Party withered. Then the pan-KMT forces forged an opposition alliance, creating an unprecedented threat to the DPP. A closer study of the changes in the rates of public support for the parties reveals some important signals, of which the new political entity should take note.

According to a TVBS opinion poll, the KMT enjoyed the support of 26 percent of the public before the presidential election. It's support fell dramatically to just 12 percent after the election and fluctuated between 10 percent and 12 percent until last September.

In October, Tang Fei's (唐飛) resignation from the post of premier sent public support for the DPP and the government into a nose-dive.

Meanwhile, the KMT's support rate rose to 19 percent by Oct. 20. Then, when KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) launched a drive to form an opposition alliance, it fell dramatically again to 13 percent before rising back to 15 percent by this May.

Support for the PFP fell from 26 percent on March 19, 2000 to 18 percent when the party was formally launched and to 13 percent when President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) took office on May 20, 2000. Support for the PFP rose gradually in the following months, rising above 20 percent in August. After the party formed an alliance with the KMT last October, its support surpassed the DPP's to become the highest of all the parties.

Since then, the PFP and the DPP have been taking turns occupying the top position. In March, the PFP trailed the DPP with 23 percent against 24 percent. But in May, the PFP overtook the DPP with 29 percent against 28 percent. It is hard to determine which one enjoys more public support.

The DPP's support rose to 26 percent after the election and further to 30 percent by May 30, 2000, peaking at 35 percent by June 20. The DPP maintained a steady level of support of around 30 percent until Tang's resigna-tion, after which it fluctuated between 25 percent and 29 percent.

All in all, the DPP support has varied from 24 percent at the lowest to 35 percent at the highest. Generally, it fluctuates around the 30 percent point.

Apparently, this public support does not have much to do with the government's performance. It could be the DPP's core public support, but it also shows that, since coming to power, the DPP has not made any major breakthroughs in terms of public support. The party is still has its core supporters, al-though its support base has shown no sign of expansion.

Also, most of the 30 percent or so middle-ground voters tend to be moving toward the KMT and PFP. Under these circumstances, the new political party will need extraordinarily savvy strategies to ensure that it will be able to develop its own voter base without encroaching on the DPP's.

I hope that the new party will take heed of the present situation in party politics and come up with strategies beyond any narrow "localization" ideology capable of receiving the kind of breakthroughs necessary to end the current political stalemate.

Chiu Hei-yuan is a research fellow at the Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica.

Translated by Francis Huang